{ "kind": "rugd-research-package", "prototype_disclaimer": "Local prototype. Not production security. This package is a draft research export. It does not grant investor-ready status. It does not clear a recommend-against flag and it does not set human_review_approved.", "tier": "explore", "tier_disclaimer": "Explore is a limited view. This package does not add a score.", "does_not_clear_recommend_against_flags": true, "does_not_set_human_review_approved": true, "assessment_summary": { "id": "hypothetical-restaurant-verified-demand", "business_name": "Hypothetical Restaurant \u2014 verified demand demonstration", "purpose": "startup_feasibility", "tier": "explore", "read_only": false, "hypothetical": false, "pilot_label": "Verified-demand demonstration \u2014 not a real assessment. Not the official baseline.", "human_review_approved": false, "recommendation": "conditional", "readiness_status": "conditional", "human_review_status": "pending", "engine_ran": true }, "engine_results": { "engine_ran": true, "model_version": "0.1-pilot", "recommendation": "conditional", "score_line": "Not calculated \u2014 methodology pending approval.", "human_review_status": "pending", "human_review_approved": false, "is_final": false, "readiness_status": "conditional", "blocking_flags": [], "gap_flags": [ "FINANCIAL_INPUTS_NOT_MEASURED", "UNEVALUATED_OPERATOR_CAPACITY", "UNEVALUATED_REGULATORY_OR_LIABILITY", "UNEVALUATED_STEWARDSHIP" ], "missing": [ "demand_evidence was not answered.", "operator_capacity_adequate was not answered.", "unresolved_regulatory_or_liability was not answered.", "extraction_without_reinvestment was not answered." ], "demand": { "status": "cleared", "criterion_status": "clear", "flag": null, "evidence": "Verified demand support: demand_evidence is true with source verified.", "revenue_trailing_12m": null, "verified_demand_evidence": [ true ], "provenance": [ { "field": "revenue_trailing_12m", "provenance": "placeholder", "source": null, "value": null }, { "field": "demand_evidence", "provenance": "verified", "source": "verified", "value": true } ], "human_review_approved": false, "investor_ready": false }, "view_summary": { "recommendation": "conditional", "insufficient_demand_evidence": "not present", "demand_status": "cleared", "investor_readiness": "conditional", "human_review_status": "pending", "human_review_approved": false, "is_final": false, "demand_provenance": [ { "field": "revenue_trailing_12m", "provenance": "placeholder", "source": null, "value": null }, { "field": "demand_evidence", "provenance": "verified", "source": "verified", "value": true } ] }, "financial": { "base_monthly_contribution": 24360.0, "base_monthly_cash_flow": 6360.0, "downside_monthly_revenue": 25200.0, "downside_monthly_contribution": 14616.0, "downside_monthly_cash_flow": -3384.0, "break_even_monthly_revenue": 31034.48, "months_to_break_even_base": 28.3, "flags": [], "field_definitions": { "base_monthly_contribution": "projected_monthly_revenue_base \u00d7 gross_margin_pct", "base_monthly_cash_flow": "base_monthly_contribution \u2212 monthly_fixed_costs, rounded half-even to cents", "downside_monthly_cash_flow": "(projected_monthly_revenue_base \u00d7 downside_revenue_multiplier \u00d7 gross_margin_pct) \u2212 monthly_fixed_costs, rounded half-even to cents", "break_even_monthly_revenue": "monthly_fixed_costs / gross_margin_pct when gross margin is positive; otherwise undefined (Methodology \u00a7 Output Requirements)", "months_to_break_even_base": "initial_capital / unrounded base monthly cash flow when the rounded base cash flow is positive. This is months to recover initial capital at the base cash-flow rate, not a revenue-ramp forecast. Methodology \u00a7 Output Requirements asks for break-even; that amount is break_even_monthly_revenue." }, "model_version": "0.1-pilot" }, "projection": { "calculated": true, "methodology_refs": [ "Methodology \u00a7 Core Principles \u2014 deterministic calculations", "Methodology \u00a7 Core Principles \u2014 human approval required for final recommendations", "Methodology \u00a7 Evaluation Dimensions \u2014 Financial Feasibility & Capital Requirements", "Methodology \u00a7 Investor Readiness Gate", "Architecture \u00a7 Analysis Layer" ], "human_review_approved": false, "is_final": false, "investor_ready": false, "sources_and_uses": { "uses": { "construction_cost": { "amount": 100000.0, "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, "equipment": { "amount": 35000.0, "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, "soft_costs": { "amount": 15000.0, "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, "preopening_working_capital": { "amount": 20000.0, "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, "contingency": { "amount": 17000.0, "evidence_label": "calculated by the deterministic engine" }, "total_project_cost": { "amount": 187000.0, "evidence_label": "calculated by the deterministic engine" } }, "sources": { "debt": { "amount": 130900.0, "evidence_label": "calculated by the deterministic engine" }, "equity": { "amount": 56100.0, "evidence_label": "calculated by the deterministic engine" }, "total_sources": { "amount": 187000.0, "evidence_label": "calculated by the deterministic engine" }, "monthly_debt_service": 1094.9, "annual_debt_service": 13138.8 } }, "assumptions": [ { "key": "construction_cost", "value": 100000.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "equipment", "value": 35000.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "soft_costs", "value": 15000.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "preopening_working_capital", "value": 20000.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "contingency_pct", "value": 0.1, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "debt_share", "value": 0.7, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "annual_interest_rate", "value": 0.08, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "amortization_years", "value": 20.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "seats", "value": 48.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "average_ticket", "value": 28.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "weekday_occupancy", "value": 0.45, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "weekend_occupancy", "value": 0.7, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "operating_days", "value": 312.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "annual_fixed_costs", "value": 240000.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "contribution_margin", "value": 0.35, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "downside_multiplier", "value": 0.6, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "Contingency equals contingency_pct times (construction + equipment + soft costs + pre-opening working capital).", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Total project cost equals that subtotal plus contingency.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Debt equals debt_share times total project cost. Equity is the residual after debt is rounded to cents.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Annual debt service is twelve monthly level payments. Each monthly payment is rounded half-even to cents, then multiplied by 12. A zero interest rate sets the monthly payment to debt divided by the number of months.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Base revenue is seats \u00d7 occupancy \u00d7 average ticket \u00d7 operating days, from engine.financial.seat_occupancy_revenue.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "The downside view multiplies weekday occupancy and weekend occupancy by downside_multiplier, then recomputes that revenue. The default multiplier is 0.6.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Cash flow before debt service equals revenue \u00d7 contribution_margin \u2212 annual fixed costs.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Break-even revenue equals (annual fixed costs + annual debt service) / contribution_margin when the margin is positive.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "DSCR equals cash flow before debt service divided by annual debt service. DSCR is undefined when rounded annual debt service is zero.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Debt share 0.70, interest 0.08, and 20-year amortization are the coded terms already used by the startup calculator. They are not a market study.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" } ], "views": { "base": { "revenue": 218649.6, "occupancy": 0.5214285714285715, "cash_flow_before_debt_service": -163472.64, "dscr": -12.442 }, "downside": { "multiplier": 0.6, "applied_to": "occupancy", "weekday_occupancy": 0.27, "weekend_occupancy": 0.42, "revenue": 131189.76, "cash_flow_before_debt_service": -194083.58, "dscr": -14.7718 }, "break_even": { "revenue": 723253.71, "covers": "annual fixed costs plus annual debt service" } } }, "assumptions": [ { "key": "demand_evidence", "value": true, "source": "verified", "rationale": "Demonstration of the documented rule: boolean demand_evidence true with source verified and a rationale. Not market research and not a real customer file." } ] }, "flags": { "blocking_flags": [], "gap_flags": [ "FINANCIAL_INPUTS_NOT_MEASURED", "UNEVALUATED_OPERATOR_CAPACITY", "UNEVALUATED_REGULATORY_OR_LIABILITY", "UNEVALUATED_STEWARDSHIP" ] }, "evidence_gaps": [ "Engine gap flag: FINANCIAL_INPUTS_NOT_MEASURED.", "Engine gap flag: UNEVALUATED_OPERATOR_CAPACITY.", "Engine gap flag: UNEVALUATED_REGULATORY_OR_LIABILITY.", "Engine gap flag: UNEVALUATED_STEWARDSHIP.", "Engine missing field: demand_evidence was not answered.", "Engine missing field: operator_capacity_adequate was not answered.", "Engine missing field: unresolved_regulatory_or_liability was not answered.", "Engine missing field: extraction_without_reinvestment was not answered." ], "market": { "status": "synthetic", "label": "Demonstration. Not market research and not active monitoring.", "observations": [], "synthetic_observations": [ { "source": "Synthetic snapshot", "geographic_coverage": "Unspecified demonstration market", "industry_classification": "Restaurant", "measurement_period": "not a measurement period", "retrieval_date": "not retrieved", "limitations": "Synthetic example only. Not market research and not a public dataset. These figures do not clear INSUFFICIENT_DEMAND_EVIDENCE or any other recommend-against flag.", "measure": "Synthetic example", "value": "Synthetic example only: a cost-pressure note with no source dataset." }, { "source": "Synthetic snapshot", "geographic_coverage": "Unspecified demonstration market", "industry_classification": "Restaurant", "measurement_period": "not a measurement period", "retrieval_date": "not retrieved", "limitations": "Synthetic example only. Not market research and not a public dataset. These figures do not clear INSUFFICIENT_DEMAND_EVIDENCE or any other recommend-against flag.", "measure": "Synthetic example", "value": "Synthetic example only: a competitive-opening note with no source dataset." } ], "does_not_clear_recommend_against_flags": true }, "analyst_explanation": [ "Demonstration Analyst. No external AI service is connected.", "This analyst can explain the current assessment. It cannot change engine results, clear a recommend-against flag, approve review, or mark a recommendation final.", "demand_evidence was not answered.", "operator_capacity_adequate was not answered.", "unresolved_regulatory_or_liability was not answered.", "extraction_without_reinvestment was not answered.", "The deterministic draft recommendation is conditional. It is not final.", "INSUFFICIENT_DEMAND_EVIDENCE is not present. Demand evidence status is cleared.", "Human review status is pending.", "Demand provenance revenue_trailing_12m: placeholder.", "Demand provenance demand_evidence: verified.", "Evidence gap still open: FINANCIAL_INPUTS_NOT_MEASURED. The analyst cannot close it.", "Evidence gap still open: UNEVALUATED_OPERATOR_CAPACITY. The analyst cannot close it.", "Evidence gap still open: UNEVALUATED_REGULATORY_OR_LIABILITY. The analyst cannot close it.", "Evidence gap still open: UNEVALUATED_STEWARDSHIP. The analyst cannot close it.", "Monthly base cash flow from the engine is 6360.0.", "Monthly downside cash flow from the engine is -3384.0.", "Sources and uses from the engine: total project cost is 187000.0. Debt is 130900.0. Equity is 56100.0.", "Base case from the engine: revenue 218649.6, cash flow before debt service -163472.64, DSCR -12.442.", "Downside case from the engine: revenue 131189.76, cash flow before debt service -194083.58, DSCR -14.7718.", "Investor readiness is conditional. The analyst cannot change the Investor Readiness Gate.", "Open evidence gaps remain. A silent or incomplete intake cannot become a go recommendation.", "human_review_approved remains false. This explanation is not evidence and is not final." ] }