{ "kind": "rugd-draft-export", "official_baseline_included": false, "drafts": [ { "id": "hypothetical-restaurant", "business_name": "Hypothetical Restaurant Startup", "purpose": "startup_feasibility", "tier": "explore", "read_only": false, "hypothetical": true, "pilot_label": "Hypothetical demonstration \u2014 not a real assessment.", "profile": { "business_name": "Hypothetical Restaurant Startup", "purpose": "startup_feasibility", "tier": "explore", "concept": "Hypothetical demonstration \u2014 not a real assessment. Seat, ticket, occupancy, and cost-build figures are invented for the Explore-to-Analyze path. They are not market research and not a real operating business. Demand evidence is left unanswered, so the insufficient-demand flag stays on.", "industry": "Restaurant", "market": "Unspecified demonstration market", "stage": "Idea", "products": "Hypothetical lunch and dinner service.", "customers": "Hypothetical neighborhood diners.", "competition": "Not researched. Placeholder for the demonstration.", "demand_evidence": "", "verified_record_source": "", "verified_revenue_trailing_12m": "", "verified_demand_evidence": "", "verified_demand_rationale": "", "operator_capacity_adequate": "", "unresolved_regulatory_or_liability": "", "extraction_without_reinvestment": "", "construction_cost": "100000", "equipment": "35000", "soft_costs": "15000", "preopening_working_capital": "20000", "contingency_pct": "0.10", "debt_share": "0.70", "annual_interest_rate": "0.08", "amortization_years": "20", "seats": "48", "average_ticket": "28", "weekday_occupancy": "0.45", "weekend_occupancy": "0.70", "operating_days": "312", "annual_fixed_costs": "240000", "contribution_margin": "0.35", "downside_multiplier": "0.6", "initial_capital": "180000", "monthly_fixed_costs": "18000", "gross_margin_pct": "0.58", "projected_monthly_revenue_base": "42000", "inputs_are_measured": false, "hypothetical": true, "evidence_notes": "" }, "intake": { "engagement_type": "startup_feasibility", "business_name": "Hypothetical Restaurant Startup", "description": "Hypothetical demonstration \u2014 not a real assessment. Seat, ticket, occupancy, and cost-build figures are invented for the Explore-to-Analyze path. They are not market research and not a real operating business. Demand evidence is left unanswered, so the insufficient-demand flag stays on.", "as_of_date": "2026-11-09", "verified_data": { "revenue_trailing_12m": null, "current_cash": null, "headcount": null, "evidence_notes": "Customer entries are user-supplied assumptions. Nothing on this form was marked verified." }, "assumptions": [ { "key": "hypothetical_demonstration", "value": true, "source": "user", "rationale": "This assessment is a labeled hypothetical demonstration." } ], "financial_inputs": { "initial_capital": 180000.0, "monthly_fixed_costs": 18000.0, "gross_margin_pct": 0.58, "projected_monthly_revenue_base": 42000.0, "downside_revenue_multiplier": 0.6, "inputs_are_measured": false }, "startup_capital": { "construction_cost": 100000.0, "seats": 48.0, "average_ticket": 28.0, "weekday_occupancy": 0.45, "weekend_occupancy": 0.7, "operating_days": 312.0, "contribution_margin": 0.35, "equipment": 35000.0, "soft_costs": 15000.0, "preopening_working_capital": 20000.0, "contingency_pct": 0.1, "debt_share": 0.7, "annual_interest_rate": 0.08, "amortization_years": 20.0, "annual_fixed_costs": 240000.0, "downside_multiplier": 0.6, "verified": { "construction_cost": false, "seats": false, "average_ticket": false, "weekday_occupancy": false, "weekend_occupancy": false, "operating_days": false, "contribution_margin": false, "equipment": false, "soft_costs": false, "preopening_working_capital": false, "contingency_pct": false, "debt_share": false, "annual_interest_rate": false, "amortization_years": false, "annual_fixed_costs": false, "downside_multiplier": false } } }, "result": { "ok": true, "engine_ran": true, "purpose_supported": true, "recommendation": "do-not-proceed", "score_line": "Not calculated \u2014 methodology pending approval.", "human_review_status": "pending", "human_review_approved": false, "is_final": false, "readiness_status": "internal", "blocking_flags": [ "INSUFFICIENT_DEMAND_EVIDENCE" ], "gap_flags": [ "FINANCIAL_INPUTS_NOT_MEASURED", "UNEVALUATED_OPERATOR_CAPACITY", "UNEVALUATED_REGULATORY_OR_LIABILITY", "UNEVALUATED_STEWARDSHIP" ], "demand": { "status": "uncleared", "criterion_status": "triggered", "flag": "INSUFFICIENT_DEMAND_EVIDENCE", "evidence": "No verified trailing revenue above zero and no user or verified demand_evidence value of true.", "revenue_trailing_12m": null, "verified_demand_evidence": [], "provenance": [ { "field": "revenue_trailing_12m", "provenance": "placeholder", "source": null, "value": null }, { "field": "demand_evidence", "provenance": "placeholder", "source": null, "value": null } ], "human_review_approved": false, "investor_ready": false }, "view_summary": { "recommendation": "do-not-proceed", "insufficient_demand_evidence": "present", "demand_status": "uncleared", "investor_readiness": "internal", "human_review_status": "pending", "human_review_approved": false, "is_final": false, "demand_provenance": [ { "field": "revenue_trailing_12m", "provenance": "placeholder", "source": null, "value": null }, { "field": "demand_evidence", "provenance": "placeholder", "source": null, "value": null } ] }, "missing": [ "demand_evidence was not answered.", "operator_capacity_adequate was not answered.", "unresolved_regulatory_or_liability was not answered.", "extraction_without_reinvestment was not answered." ], "financial": { "base_monthly_contribution": 24360.0, "base_monthly_cash_flow": 6360.0, "downside_monthly_revenue": 25200.0, "downside_monthly_contribution": 14616.0, "downside_monthly_cash_flow": -3384.0, "break_even_monthly_revenue": 31034.48, "months_to_break_even_base": 28.3, "flags": [], "field_definitions": { "base_monthly_contribution": "projected_monthly_revenue_base \u00d7 gross_margin_pct", "base_monthly_cash_flow": "base_monthly_contribution \u2212 monthly_fixed_costs, rounded half-even to cents", "downside_monthly_cash_flow": "(projected_monthly_revenue_base \u00d7 downside_revenue_multiplier \u00d7 gross_margin_pct) \u2212 monthly_fixed_costs, rounded half-even to cents", "break_even_monthly_revenue": "monthly_fixed_costs / gross_margin_pct when gross margin is positive; otherwise undefined (Methodology \u00a7 Output Requirements)", "months_to_break_even_base": "initial_capital / unrounded base monthly cash flow when the rounded base cash flow is positive. This is months to recover initial capital at the base cash-flow rate, not a revenue-ramp forecast. Methodology \u00a7 Output Requirements asks for break-even; that amount is break_even_monthly_revenue." }, "model_version": "0.1-pilot" }, "projection": { "calculated": true, "methodology_refs": [ "Methodology \u00a7 Core Principles \u2014 deterministic calculations", "Methodology \u00a7 Core Principles \u2014 human approval required for final recommendations", "Methodology \u00a7 Evaluation Dimensions \u2014 Financial Feasibility & Capital Requirements", "Methodology \u00a7 Investor Readiness Gate", "Architecture \u00a7 Analysis Layer" ], "human_review_approved": false, "is_final": false, "investor_ready": false, "sources_and_uses": { "uses": { "construction_cost": { "amount": 100000.0, "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, "equipment": { "amount": 35000.0, "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, "soft_costs": { "amount": 15000.0, "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, "preopening_working_capital": { "amount": 20000.0, "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, "contingency": { "amount": 17000.0, "evidence_label": "calculated by the deterministic engine" }, "total_project_cost": { "amount": 187000.0, "evidence_label": "calculated by the deterministic engine" } }, "sources": { "debt": { "amount": 130900.0, "evidence_label": "calculated by the deterministic engine" }, "equity": { "amount": 56100.0, "evidence_label": "calculated by the deterministic engine" }, "total_sources": { "amount": 187000.0, "evidence_label": "calculated by the deterministic engine" }, "monthly_debt_service": 1094.9, "annual_debt_service": 13138.8 } }, "assumptions": [ { "key": "construction_cost", "value": 100000.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "equipment", "value": 35000.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "soft_costs", "value": 15000.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "preopening_working_capital", "value": 20000.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "contingency_pct", "value": 0.1, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "debt_share", "value": 0.7, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "annual_interest_rate", "value": 0.08, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "amortization_years", "value": 20.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "seats", "value": 48.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "average_ticket", "value": 28.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "weekday_occupancy", "value": 0.45, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "weekend_occupancy", "value": 0.7, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "operating_days", "value": 312.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "annual_fixed_costs", "value": 240000.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "contribution_margin", "value": 0.35, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "downside_multiplier", "value": 0.6, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "Contingency equals contingency_pct times (construction + equipment + soft costs + pre-opening working capital).", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Total project cost equals that subtotal plus contingency.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Debt equals debt_share times total project cost. Equity is the residual after debt is rounded to cents.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Annual debt service is twelve monthly level payments. Each monthly payment is rounded half-even to cents, then multiplied by 12. A zero interest rate sets the monthly payment to debt divided by the number of months.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Base revenue is seats \u00d7 occupancy \u00d7 average ticket \u00d7 operating days, from engine.financial.seat_occupancy_revenue.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "The downside view multiplies weekday occupancy and weekend occupancy by downside_multiplier, then recomputes that revenue. The default multiplier is 0.6.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Cash flow before debt service equals revenue \u00d7 contribution_margin \u2212 annual fixed costs.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Break-even revenue equals (annual fixed costs + annual debt service) / contribution_margin when the margin is positive.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "DSCR equals cash flow before debt service divided by annual debt service. DSCR is undefined when rounded annual debt service is zero.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Debt share 0.70, interest 0.08, and 20-year amortization are the coded terms already used by the startup calculator. They are not a market study.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" } ], "views": { "base": { "revenue": 218649.6, "occupancy": 0.5214285714285715, "cash_flow_before_debt_service": -163472.64, "dscr": -12.442 }, "downside": { "multiplier": 0.6, "applied_to": "occupancy", "weekday_occupancy": 0.27, "weekend_occupancy": 0.42, "revenue": 131189.76, "cash_flow_before_debt_service": -194083.58, "dscr": -14.7718 }, "break_even": { "revenue": 723253.71, "covers": "annual fixed costs plus annual debt service" } } }, "projection_text": "Methodology \u00a7 Core Principles \u2014 deterministic calculations, and human approval before a final recommendation.\nMethodology \u00a7 Investor Readiness Gate \u2014 this path does not mark the assessment investor-ready.\nhuman_review_approved: false\nis_final: false\ninvestor_ready: false\n\n### Sources and uses\nUses\n- construction_cost: 100000.00 (user-supplied assumption)\n- equipment: 35000.00 (user-supplied assumption)\n- soft_costs: 15000.00 (user-supplied assumption)\n- preopening_working_capital: 20000.00 (user-supplied assumption)\n- contingency: 17000.00 (calculated by the deterministic engine)\n- total_project_cost: 187000.00 (calculated by the deterministic engine)\nSources\n- debt: 130900.00 (calculated by the deterministic engine)\n- equity: 56100.00 (calculated by the deterministic engine)\n- total_sources: 187000.00 (calculated by the deterministic engine)\n- annual_debt_service: 13138.80\n\n### Assumption list\n- construction_cost = 100000.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- equipment = 35000.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- soft_costs = 15000.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- preopening_working_capital = 20000.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- contingency_pct = 0.1 (user-supplied assumption)\n- debt_share = 0.7 (user-supplied assumption)\n- annual_interest_rate = 0.08 (user-supplied assumption)\n- amortization_years = 20.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- seats = 48.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- average_ticket = 28.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- weekday_occupancy = 0.45 (user-supplied assumption)\n- weekend_occupancy = 0.7 (user-supplied assumption)\n- operating_days = 312.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- annual_fixed_costs = 240000.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- contribution_margin = 0.35 (user-supplied assumption)\n- downside_multiplier = 0.6 (user-supplied assumption)\n- Contingency equals contingency_pct times (construction + equipment + soft costs + pre-opening working capital). = None (model assumption)\n- Total project cost equals that subtotal plus contingency. = None (model assumption)\n- Debt equals debt_share times total project cost. Equity is the residual after debt is rounded to cents. = None (model assumption)\n- Annual debt service is twelve monthly level payments. Each monthly payment is rounded half-even to cents, then multiplied by 12. A zero interest rate sets the monthly payment to debt divided by the number of months. = None (model assumption)\n- Base revenue is seats \u00d7 occupancy \u00d7 average ticket \u00d7 operating days, from engine.financial.seat_occupancy_revenue. = None (model assumption)\n- The downside view multiplies weekday occupancy and weekend occupancy by downside_multiplier, then recomputes that revenue. The default multiplier is 0.6. = None (model assumption)\n- Cash flow before debt service equals revenue \u00d7 contribution_margin \u2212 annual fixed costs. = None (model assumption)\n- Break-even revenue equals (annual fixed costs + annual debt service) / contribution_margin when the margin is positive. = None (model assumption)\n- DSCR equals cash flow before debt service divided by annual debt service. DSCR is undefined when rounded annual debt service is zero. = None (model assumption)\n- Debt share 0.70, interest 0.08, and 20-year amortization are the coded terms already used by the startup calculator. They are not a market study. = None (model assumption)\n\n### Base case\n- Revenue: 218649.60\n- Cash flow before debt service: -163472.64\n- DSCR: -12.4420\n\n### Downside case\n- downside_multiplier 0.6 applied to occupancy.\n- Revenue: 131189.76\n- Cash flow before debt service: -194083.58\n- DSCR: -14.7718\n\n### Break-even\n- Revenue needed to cover fixed costs plus debt service: 723253.71", "report_markdown": "# RUGD Assessment Report\n\n**Engagement:** startup_feasibility \n**Business:** Hypothetical Restaurant Startup \n**Date:** 2026-11-09 \n**Model Version:** 0.1-pilot\n\n## Executive Summary\n\nDraft recommendation: do-not-proceed. Blocking flags: INSUFFICIENT_DEMAND_EVIDENCE. Gap flags: FINANCIAL_INPUTS_NOT_MEASURED, UNEVALUATED_OPERATOR_CAPACITY, UNEVALUATED_REGULATORY_OR_LIABILITY, UNEVALUATED_STEWARDSHIP. Review status: pending. This paragraph is assembled by scoring/rules.py from those flags. It is not a final recommendation and it is not a verified fact (Methodology \u00a7 Core Principles; Methodology \u00a7 Output Requirements).\n\n**Recommendation:** do-not-proceed (go / conditional / do-not-proceed) \n*Human approval required before this recommendation is final.* \n**Review status:** pending \u2014 draft only, not a final recommendation\n\n## Evidence Base and Assumptions\n\n### Verified Data\n\n- revenue_trailing_12m: not supplied\n- current_cash: not supplied\n- headcount: not supplied\n- evidence_notes: Customer entries are user-supplied assumptions. Nothing on this form was marked verified.\nVerified fields are copied from the intake. Missing fields were left empty.\n\n### Assumptions\n\n#### Intake assumptions\nEach item keeps the source stored on the intake (Methodology \u00a7 Core Principles \u2014 evidence hierarchy).\n- `hypothetical_demonstration` = True (source: user). This assessment is a labeled hypothetical demonstration.\n#### Method assumptions used by this run\n- Marginal cash flow means monthly cash flow rounded half-even to cents is less than or equal to zero. No other marginal band is approved.\n- NEGATIVE_OR_MARGINAL_CASH_FLOW is raised only when both the base case and the downside case meet that test.\n- Any flag in the approved recommend-against set drafts do-not-proceed. No per-flag split between do-not-proceed and conditional-only is approved.\n- A criterion with no user or verified input stays unevaluated. Unevaluated criteria draft conditional when no recommend-against flag fired, so a silent intake cannot draft go.\n- Assumptions with source ai_interpretation are listed. They do not raise or clear recommend-against flags.\n- demand_evidence true with source verified, or verified trailing revenue greater than zero, clears insufficient demand. Trailing revenue of zero does not. Trailing revenue is not a market-size score.\n- demand_evidence true with source user leaves DEMAND_EVIDENCE_UNVERIFIED. That gap drafts conditional when no recommend-against flag fired. It does not draft do-not-proceed by itself.\n- If demand support conflicts with demand_evidence false from a user or verified source, the insufficient-demand flag stays on.\n- If operator capacity, regulatory exposure, or extraction has both true and false from user or verified sources, the recommend-against flag stays on.\n- When financial_inputs is present and inputs_are_measured is omitted, the inputs are treated as measured. When the field is false, or financial_inputs is absent, the cash-flow criterion is not evaluated.\n- months_to_break_even_base is months to recover initial capital at the base cash-flow rate. Break-even revenue is break_even_monthly_revenue.\n- The overall feasibility score and the 1\u20135 dimension scores are not computed.\n- No currency unit is defined on the intake. Amounts stay in the unit of the inputs.\n- This module cannot record human approval. is_final stays false and human_review_status stays pending.\n#### AI interpretations (listed, not used to raise or clear recommend-against flags)\n- None on this intake.\n\n## Financial Summary\n\n* Base monthly contribution: 24360.00 (arithmetic on unmeasured inputs; not a cash-flow finding)\n* Base monthly cash flow: 6360.00 (arithmetic on unmeasured inputs; not a cash-flow finding)\n* Downside monthly cash flow: -3384.00 (arithmetic on unmeasured inputs; not a cash-flow finding)\n* Break-even monthly revenue: 31034.48 (arithmetic on unmeasured inputs; not a cash-flow finding)\n* Months to recover initial capital at base cash flow: 28.3 (arithmetic on unmeasured inputs; not a finding)\n* Engine flags: none\n* Overall feasibility score: Not computed. Methodology \u00a7 Scoring Approach defines the overall feasibility score as a weighted average and says weights are adjustable by engagement type. No weights are approved, and no 1\u20135 rubric is approved, so none of these dimensions received a score: Market & Demand Reality; Competitive Position & Differentiation; Financial Feasibility & Capital Requirements; Operational Readiness & Capacity; Risk Profile (market, execution, financial, regulatory); Stewardship Indicators (reinvestment capacity, resilience, continuity potential); Implementation Feasibility (for AI or operational improvements).\n\nDefinitions from the deterministic engine (Methodology \u00a7 Output Requirements):\n- base_monthly_contribution: projected_monthly_revenue_base \u00d7 gross_margin_pct\n- base_monthly_cash_flow: base_monthly_contribution \u2212 monthly_fixed_costs, rounded half-even to cents\n- downside_monthly_cash_flow: (projected_monthly_revenue_base \u00d7 downside_revenue_multiplier \u00d7 gross_margin_pct) \u2212 monthly_fixed_costs, rounded half-even to cents\n- break_even_monthly_revenue: monthly_fixed_costs / gross_margin_pct when gross margin is positive; otherwise undefined (Methodology \u00a7 Output Requirements)\n- months_to_break_even_base: initial_capital / unrounded base monthly cash flow when the rounded base cash flow is positive. This is months to recover initial capital at the base cash-flow rate, not a revenue-ramp forecast. Methodology \u00a7 Output Requirements asks for break-even; that amount is break_even_monthly_revenue.\nNo currency unit is defined on the intake. Amounts stay in the unit of the inputs.\ninputs_are_measured is false, or financial inputs were absent. The figures are arithmetic on the supplied numbers. Scoring did not treat them as a measured base case or downside case.\n\n### Reasonableness check\n\nSecondary industry benchmark. National Restaurant Association, 2025 Restaurant Operations Data Abstract, 2024 full-service medians. This comparison is not a scoring input.\n- Labor %: not calculated, so it was not compared with the secondary industry benchmark (NRA median 36.5% of sales).\n- Occupancy %: not calculated, so it was not compared with the secondary industry benchmark (NRA median 5.7% of sales).\n- Pre-tax margin: not calculated, so it was not compared with the secondary industry benchmark (NRA median 2.8% of sales).\n\n## Startup Capital and Projection\n\nMethodology \u00a7 Core Principles \u2014 deterministic calculations, and human approval before a final recommendation.\nMethodology \u00a7 Investor Readiness Gate \u2014 this path does not mark the assessment investor-ready.\nhuman_review_approved: false\nis_final: false\ninvestor_ready: false\n\n### Sources and uses\nUses\n- construction_cost: 100000.00 (user-supplied assumption)\n- equipment: 35000.00 (user-supplied assumption)\n- soft_costs: 15000.00 (user-supplied assumption)\n- preopening_working_capital: 20000.00 (user-supplied assumption)\n- contingency: 17000.00 (calculated by the deterministic engine)\n- total_project_cost: 187000.00 (calculated by the deterministic engine)\nSources\n- debt: 130900.00 (calculated by the deterministic engine)\n- equity: 56100.00 (calculated by the deterministic engine)\n- total_sources: 187000.00 (calculated by the deterministic engine)\n- annual_debt_service: 13138.80\n\n### Assumption list\n- construction_cost = 100000.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- equipment = 35000.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- soft_costs = 15000.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- preopening_working_capital = 20000.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- contingency_pct = 0.1 (user-supplied assumption)\n- debt_share = 0.7 (user-supplied assumption)\n- annual_interest_rate = 0.08 (user-supplied assumption)\n- amortization_years = 20.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- seats = 48.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- average_ticket = 28.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- weekday_occupancy = 0.45 (user-supplied assumption)\n- weekend_occupancy = 0.7 (user-supplied assumption)\n- operating_days = 312.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- annual_fixed_costs = 240000.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- contribution_margin = 0.35 (user-supplied assumption)\n- downside_multiplier = 0.6 (user-supplied assumption)\n- Contingency equals contingency_pct times (construction + equipment + soft costs + pre-opening working capital). = None (model assumption)\n- Total project cost equals that subtotal plus contingency. = None (model assumption)\n- Debt equals debt_share times total project cost. Equity is the residual after debt is rounded to cents. = None (model assumption)\n- Annual debt service is twelve monthly level payments. Each monthly payment is rounded half-even to cents, then multiplied by 12. A zero interest rate sets the monthly payment to debt divided by the number of months. = None (model assumption)\n- Base revenue is seats \u00d7 occupancy \u00d7 average ticket \u00d7 operating days, from engine.financial.seat_occupancy_revenue. = None (model assumption)\n- The downside view multiplies weekday occupancy and weekend occupancy by downside_multiplier, then recomputes that revenue. The default multiplier is 0.6. = None (model assumption)\n- Cash flow before debt service equals revenue \u00d7 contribution_margin \u2212 annual fixed costs. = None (model assumption)\n- Break-even revenue equals (annual fixed costs + annual debt service) / contribution_margin when the margin is positive. = None (model assumption)\n- DSCR equals cash flow before debt service divided by annual debt service. DSCR is undefined when rounded annual debt service is zero. = None (model assumption)\n- Debt share 0.70, interest 0.08, and 20-year amortization are the coded terms already used by the startup calculator. They are not a market study. = None (model assumption)\n\n### Base case\n- Revenue: 218649.60\n- Cash flow before debt service: -163472.64\n- DSCR: -12.4420\n\n### Downside case\n- downside_multiplier 0.6 applied to occupancy.\n- Revenue: 131189.76\n- Cash flow before debt service: -194083.58\n- DSCR: -14.7718\n\n### Break-even\n- Revenue needed to cover fixed costs plus debt service: 723253.71\n\n## Key Risks and Mitigations\n\nAssembled from scoring flags by scoring/rules.py. This is not an independent qualitative risk essay.\n- **INSUFFICIENT_DEMAND_EVIDENCE** (triggered). Methodology \u00a7 Scoring Approach \u2014 insufficient evidence of demand. No verified trailing revenue above zero and no user or verified demand_evidence value of true. Mitigation: Gather verified demand evidence and record it as verified trailing revenue above zero, or as demand_evidence true with source verified. Re-run before reconsideration.\n- **FINANCIAL_INPUTS_NOT_MEASURED** (gap). Methodology \u00a7 Scoring Approach \u2014 negative or marginal cash-flow under base and downside cases. Methodology \u00a7 Core Principles \u2014 verified data and assumptions stay distinct. Unmeasured financial inputs are not a base case or a downside case. Engine flags on these inputs: none. Those flags were not applied as a recommend-against finding because the inputs are not a measured base case and downside case. Base monthly cash flow 6360.0. Downside monthly cash flow -3384.0. Mitigation: Replace unmeasured financial inputs with measured figures, set inputs_are_measured to true, and re-run.\n- **UNEVALUATED_OPERATOR_CAPACITY** (gap). Methodology \u00a7 Scoring Approach \u2014 founder/operator capacity inadequate for the proposed scope. No user or verified value for operator_capacity_adequate. Mitigation: Record operator_capacity_adequate as true or false with source user or verified.\n- **UNEVALUATED_REGULATORY_OR_LIABILITY** (gap). Methodology \u00a7 Scoring Approach \u2014 material unresolved regulatory or liability issues. No user or verified value for unresolved_regulatory_or_liability. Mitigation: Record unresolved_regulatory_or_liability as true or false with source user or verified.\n- **UNEVALUATED_STEWARDSHIP** (gap). Methodology \u00a7 Scoring Approach \u2014 stewardship indicators show extraction without reinvestment capacity. No user or verified value for extraction_without_reinvestment. Mitigation: Record extraction_without_reinvestment as true or false with source user or verified.\n\n## Stewardship Observations\n\nMethodology \u00a7 Scoring Approach \u2014 stewardship indicators show extraction without reinvestment capacity.\n\nStatus: gap.\n\nNo user or verified value for extraction_without_reinvestment.\n\nMethodology \u00a7 Core Principles sets a stewardship orientation for every assessment: long-term enterprise strength over short-term extraction. That principle is the standard being applied. It is not evidence that this venture reinvests.\n\nThe intake has no additional stewardship narrative beyond the extraction criterion above.\n\n## Recommended Next Actions\n\n- Human reviewer must approve or reject this draft before it is used as a recommendation. This runner cannot record that approval.\n- Stop. Do not proceed on this evidence. Methodology \u00a7 Output Requirements includes stop as a valid next action.\n- Gather verified demand evidence and record it as verified trailing revenue above zero, or as demand_evidence true with source verified. Re-run before reconsideration.\n- Replace unmeasured financial inputs with measured figures, set inputs_are_measured to true, and re-run.\n- Record operator_capacity_adequate as true or false with source user or verified.\n- Record unresolved_regulatory_or_liability as true or false with source user or verified.\n- Record extraction_without_reinvestment as true or false with source user or verified.\n\n## Investor Readiness\n\n**Status:** internal (internal / conditional / investor-ready) \n**human_review_approved:** false\n\n- **Human review complete and release explicitly approved:** failed. Investor-ready requires human review complete, release explicitly approved, and human_review_approved true.\n- **No recommend-against flags are active:** failed. Active recommend-against flags: INSUFFICIENT_DEMAND_EVIDENCE.\n- **Conditional flags have accepted mitigations:** failed. Open conditional flags: FINANCIAL_INPUTS_NOT_MEASURED, UNEVALUATED_OPERATOR_CAPACITY, UNEVALUATED_REGULATORY_OR_LIABILITY, UNEVALUATED_STEWARDSHIP.\n- **Base-case cash flow is non-negative:** failed. Base-case cash flow was not supplied as a measured engine result.\n- **Downside DSCR meets the engagement minimum:** failed. Downside DSCR was not supplied by the deterministic engine. The engagement minimum is 1.00x.\n- **Demand evidence is verified or has a verification plan:** failed. Demand evidence is not verified and has no verification plan.\n- **Regulatory or liability issues are resolved or disclosed with mitigations:** failed. Material regulatory or liability issues are not resolved or disclosed with mitigations.\n- **Stewardship does not show extraction without reinvestment capacity:** passed. Stewardship indicators do not show extraction without reinvestment capacity.\n\nRelease for investors still requires explicit human approval. This report does not grant that approval.\n\n---\n\n*Generated under RUGD Methodology v1.0. All financial figures from deterministic engine. Draft only until a person approves it.*\n\n## Demand evidence status\n\n**Status:** uncleared\n\nNo verified trailing revenue above zero and no user or verified demand_evidence value of true.\n\n## Assessment view\n\n**Recommendation:** do-not-proceed\n\n**INSUFFICIENT_DEMAND_EVIDENCE:** present\n\n**Demand evidence status:** uncleared\n\n**Investor readiness:** internal\n\n**Human review status:** pending\n\n**human_review_approved:** false\n\n**Demand evidence provenance:**\n\n- revenue_trailing_12m: placeholder\n- demand_evidence: placeholder\n\nThis status comes from the 0.1 demand rule. human_review_approved remains false. This report does not mark the assessment investor-ready.\n", "audit": { "model_version": "0.1-pilot", "human_review_approved": false, "is_final": false, "approvals": [], "investor_summary_written": false, "investor_readiness": { "status": "internal", "human_review_approved": false, "investor_ready": false }, "recommendation": { "draft_recommendation": "do-not-proceed", "blocking_flags": [ "INSUFFICIENT_DEMAND_EVIDENCE" ], "gap_flags": [ "FINANCIAL_INPUTS_NOT_MEASURED", "UNEVALUATED_OPERATOR_CAPACITY", "UNEVALUATED_REGULATORY_OR_LIABILITY", "UNEVALUATED_STEWARDSHIP" ], "overall_feasibility_score": null }, "demand_evidence": { "status": "uncleared", "criterion_status": "triggered", "flag": "INSUFFICIENT_DEMAND_EVIDENCE", "evidence": "No verified trailing revenue above zero and no user or verified demand_evidence value of true.", "revenue_trailing_12m": null, "verified_demand_evidence": [], "provenance": [ { "field": "revenue_trailing_12m", "provenance": "placeholder", "source": null, "value": null }, { "field": "demand_evidence", "provenance": "placeholder", "source": null, "value": null } ], "human_review_approved": false, "investor_ready": false }, "view_summary": { "recommendation": "do-not-proceed", "insufficient_demand_evidence": "present", "demand_status": "uncleared", "investor_readiness": "internal", "human_review_status": "pending", "human_review_approved": false, "is_final": false, "demand_provenance": [ { "field": "revenue_trailing_12m", "provenance": "placeholder", "source": null, "value": null }, { "field": "demand_evidence", "provenance": "placeholder", "source": null, "value": null } ] }, "financial_result": { "base_monthly_contribution": 24360.0, "base_monthly_cash_flow": 6360.0, "downside_monthly_revenue": 25200.0, "downside_monthly_contribution": 14616.0, "downside_monthly_cash_flow": -3384.0, "break_even_monthly_revenue": 31034.48, "months_to_break_even_base": 28.3, "flags": [], "field_definitions": { "base_monthly_contribution": "projected_monthly_revenue_base \u00d7 gross_margin_pct", "base_monthly_cash_flow": "base_monthly_contribution \u2212 monthly_fixed_costs, rounded half-even to cents", "downside_monthly_cash_flow": "(projected_monthly_revenue_base \u00d7 downside_revenue_multiplier \u00d7 gross_margin_pct) \u2212 monthly_fixed_costs, rounded half-even to cents", "break_even_monthly_revenue": "monthly_fixed_costs / gross_margin_pct when gross margin is positive; otherwise undefined (Methodology \u00a7 Output Requirements)", "months_to_break_even_base": "initial_capital / unrounded base monthly cash flow when the rounded base cash flow is positive. This is months to recover initial capital at the base cash-flow rate, not a revenue-ramp forecast. Methodology \u00a7 Output Requirements asks for break-even; that amount is break_even_monthly_revenue." }, "model_version": "0.1-pilot" }, "startup_capital": { "calculated": true, "methodology_refs": [ "Methodology \u00a7 Core Principles \u2014 deterministic calculations", "Methodology \u00a7 Core Principles \u2014 human approval required for final recommendations", "Methodology \u00a7 Evaluation Dimensions \u2014 Financial Feasibility & Capital Requirements", "Methodology \u00a7 Investor Readiness Gate", "Architecture \u00a7 Analysis Layer" ], "human_review_approved": false, "is_final": false, "investor_ready": false, "sources_and_uses": { "uses": { "construction_cost": { "amount": 100000.0, "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, "equipment": { "amount": 35000.0, "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, "soft_costs": { "amount": 15000.0, "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, "preopening_working_capital": { "amount": 20000.0, "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, "contingency": { "amount": 17000.0, "evidence_label": "calculated by the deterministic engine" }, "total_project_cost": { "amount": 187000.0, "evidence_label": "calculated by the deterministic engine" } }, "sources": { "debt": { "amount": 130900.0, "evidence_label": "calculated by the deterministic engine" }, "equity": { "amount": 56100.0, "evidence_label": "calculated by the deterministic engine" }, "total_sources": { "amount": 187000.0, "evidence_label": "calculated by the deterministic engine" }, "monthly_debt_service": 1094.9, "annual_debt_service": 13138.8 } }, "assumptions": [ { "key": "construction_cost", "value": 100000.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "equipment", "value": 35000.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "soft_costs", "value": 15000.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "preopening_working_capital", "value": 20000.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "contingency_pct", "value": 0.1, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "debt_share", "value": 0.7, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "annual_interest_rate", "value": 0.08, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "amortization_years", "value": 20.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "seats", "value": 48.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "average_ticket", "value": 28.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "weekday_occupancy", "value": 0.45, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "weekend_occupancy", "value": 0.7, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "operating_days", "value": 312.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "annual_fixed_costs", "value": 240000.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "contribution_margin", "value": 0.35, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "downside_multiplier", "value": 0.6, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "Contingency equals contingency_pct times (construction + equipment + soft costs + pre-opening working capital).", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Total project cost equals that subtotal plus contingency.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Debt equals debt_share times total project cost. Equity is the residual after debt is rounded to cents.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Annual debt service is twelve monthly level payments. Each monthly payment is rounded half-even to cents, then multiplied by 12. A zero interest rate sets the monthly payment to debt divided by the number of months.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Base revenue is seats \u00d7 occupancy \u00d7 average ticket \u00d7 operating days, from engine.financial.seat_occupancy_revenue.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "The downside view multiplies weekday occupancy and weekend occupancy by downside_multiplier, then recomputes that revenue. The default multiplier is 0.6.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Cash flow before debt service equals revenue \u00d7 contribution_margin \u2212 annual fixed costs.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Break-even revenue equals (annual fixed costs + annual debt service) / contribution_margin when the margin is positive.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "DSCR equals cash flow before debt service divided by annual debt service. DSCR is undefined when rounded annual debt service is zero.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Debt share 0.70, interest 0.08, and 20-year amortization are the coded terms already used by the startup calculator. They are not a market study.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" } ], "views": { "base": { "revenue": 218649.6, "occupancy": 0.5214285714285715, "cash_flow_before_debt_service": -163472.64, "dscr": -12.442 }, "downside": { "multiplier": 0.6, "applied_to": "occupancy", "weekday_occupancy": 0.27, "weekend_occupancy": 0.42, "revenue": 131189.76, "cash_flow_before_debt_service": -194083.58, "dscr": -14.7718 }, "break_even": { "revenue": 723253.71, "covers": "annual fixed costs plus annual debt service" } } } }, "model_version": "0.1-pilot", "intake": { "engagement_type": "startup_feasibility", "business_name": "Hypothetical Restaurant Startup", "description": "Hypothetical demonstration \u2014 not a real assessment. Seat, ticket, occupancy, and cost-build figures are invented for the Explore-to-Analyze path. They are not market research and not a real operating business. Demand evidence is left unanswered, so the insufficient-demand flag stays on.", "as_of_date": "2026-11-09", "verified_data": { "revenue_trailing_12m": null, "current_cash": null, "headcount": null, "evidence_notes": "Customer entries are user-supplied assumptions. Nothing on this form was marked verified." }, "assumptions": [ { "key": "hypothetical_demonstration", "value": true, "source": "user", "rationale": "This assessment is a labeled hypothetical demonstration." } ], "financial_inputs": { "initial_capital": 180000.0, "monthly_fixed_costs": 18000.0, "gross_margin_pct": 0.58, "projected_monthly_revenue_base": 42000.0, "downside_revenue_multiplier": 0.6, "inputs_are_measured": false }, "startup_capital": { "construction_cost": 100000.0, "seats": 48.0, "average_ticket": 28.0, "weekday_occupancy": 0.45, "weekend_occupancy": 0.7, "operating_days": 312.0, "contribution_margin": 0.35, "equipment": 35000.0, "soft_costs": 15000.0, "preopening_working_capital": 20000.0, "contingency_pct": 0.1, "debt_share": 0.7, "annual_interest_rate": 0.08, "amortization_years": 20.0, "annual_fixed_costs": 240000.0, "downside_multiplier": 0.6, "verified": { "construction_cost": false, "seats": false, "average_ticket": false, "weekday_occupancy": false, "weekend_occupancy": false, "operating_days": false, "contribution_margin": false, "equipment": false, "soft_costs": false, "preopening_working_capital": false, "contingency_pct": false, "debt_share": false, "annual_interest_rate": false, "amortization_years": false, "annual_fixed_costs": false, "downside_multiplier": false } } } }, "human_review_approved": false, "created_at": "2026-11-09T16:44:57+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-11-09T16:58:18+00:00" }, { "id": "hypothetical-restaurant-verified-demand", "business_name": "Hypothetical Restaurant \u2014 verified demand demonstration", "purpose": "startup_feasibility", "tier": "explore", "read_only": false, "hypothetical": false, "pilot_label": "Verified-demand demonstration \u2014 not a real assessment. Not the official baseline.", "profile": { "business_name": "Hypothetical Restaurant \u2014 verified demand demonstration", "purpose": "startup_feasibility", "tier": "explore", "concept": "Hypothetical demonstration \u2014 not a real assessment. Seat, ticket, occupancy, and cost-build figures are invented for the Explore-to-Analyze path. They are not market research and not a real operating business. This variant adds a verified demand_evidence record under the documented rule. Clearing that flag does not approve the assessment or make it investor-ready.", "industry": "Restaurant", "market": "Unspecified demonstration market", "stage": "Idea", "products": "Hypothetical lunch and dinner service.", "customers": "Hypothetical neighborhood diners.", "competition": "Not researched. Placeholder for the demonstration.", "demand_evidence": "", "verified_record_source": "verified", "verified_revenue_trailing_12m": "", "verified_demand_evidence": "true", "verified_demand_rationale": "Demonstration of the documented rule: boolean demand_evidence true with source verified and a rationale. Not market research and not a real customer file.", "operator_capacity_adequate": "", "unresolved_regulatory_or_liability": "", "extraction_without_reinvestment": "", "construction_cost": "100000", "equipment": "35000", "soft_costs": "15000", "preopening_working_capital": "20000", "contingency_pct": "0.10", "debt_share": "0.70", "annual_interest_rate": "0.08", "amortization_years": "20", "seats": "48", "average_ticket": "28", "weekday_occupancy": "0.45", "weekend_occupancy": "0.70", "operating_days": "312", "annual_fixed_costs": "240000", "contribution_margin": "0.35", "downside_multiplier": "0.6", "initial_capital": "180000", "monthly_fixed_costs": "18000", "gross_margin_pct": "0.58", "projected_monthly_revenue_base": "42000", "inputs_are_measured": false, "hypothetical": false, "evidence_notes": "" }, "intake": { "engagement_type": "startup_feasibility", "business_name": "Hypothetical Restaurant \u2014 verified demand demonstration", "description": "Hypothetical demonstration \u2014 not a real assessment. Seat, ticket, occupancy, and cost-build figures are invented for the Explore-to-Analyze path. They are not market research and not a real operating business. This variant adds a verified demand_evidence record under the documented rule. Clearing that flag does not approve the assessment or make it investor-ready.", "as_of_date": "2026-11-09", "verified_data": { "revenue_trailing_12m": null, "current_cash": null, "headcount": null, "evidence_notes": "Verified demand record, source verified. Demonstration of the documented rule: boolean demand_evidence true with source verified and a rationale. Not market research and not a real customer file." }, "assumptions": [ { "key": "demand_evidence", "value": true, "source": "verified", "rationale": "Demonstration of the documented rule: boolean demand_evidence true with source verified and a rationale. Not market research and not a real customer file." } ], "financial_inputs": { "initial_capital": 180000.0, "monthly_fixed_costs": 18000.0, "gross_margin_pct": 0.58, "projected_monthly_revenue_base": 42000.0, "downside_revenue_multiplier": 0.6, "inputs_are_measured": false }, "startup_capital": { "construction_cost": 100000.0, "seats": 48.0, "average_ticket": 28.0, "weekday_occupancy": 0.45, "weekend_occupancy": 0.7, "operating_days": 312.0, "contribution_margin": 0.35, "equipment": 35000.0, "soft_costs": 15000.0, "preopening_working_capital": 20000.0, "contingency_pct": 0.1, "debt_share": 0.7, "annual_interest_rate": 0.08, "amortization_years": 20.0, "annual_fixed_costs": 240000.0, "downside_multiplier": 0.6, "verified": { "construction_cost": false, "seats": false, "average_ticket": false, "weekday_occupancy": false, "weekend_occupancy": false, "operating_days": false, "contribution_margin": false, "equipment": false, "soft_costs": false, "preopening_working_capital": false, "contingency_pct": false, "debt_share": false, "annual_interest_rate": false, "amortization_years": false, "annual_fixed_costs": false, "downside_multiplier": false } } }, "result": { "ok": true, "engine_ran": true, "purpose_supported": true, "recommendation": "conditional", "score_line": "Not calculated \u2014 methodology pending approval.", "human_review_status": "pending", "human_review_approved": false, "is_final": false, "readiness_status": "conditional", "blocking_flags": [], "gap_flags": [ "FINANCIAL_INPUTS_NOT_MEASURED", "UNEVALUATED_OPERATOR_CAPACITY", "UNEVALUATED_REGULATORY_OR_LIABILITY", "UNEVALUATED_STEWARDSHIP" ], "demand": { "status": "cleared", "criterion_status": "clear", "flag": null, "evidence": "Verified demand support: demand_evidence is true with source verified.", "revenue_trailing_12m": null, "verified_demand_evidence": [ true ], "provenance": [ { "field": "revenue_trailing_12m", "provenance": "placeholder", "source": null, "value": null }, { "field": "demand_evidence", "provenance": "verified", "source": "verified", "value": true } ], "human_review_approved": false, "investor_ready": false }, "view_summary": { "recommendation": "conditional", "insufficient_demand_evidence": "not present", "demand_status": "cleared", "investor_readiness": "conditional", "human_review_status": "pending", "human_review_approved": false, "is_final": false, "demand_provenance": [ { "field": "revenue_trailing_12m", "provenance": "placeholder", "source": null, "value": null }, { "field": "demand_evidence", "provenance": "verified", "source": "verified", "value": true } ] }, "missing": [ "demand_evidence was not answered.", "operator_capacity_adequate was not answered.", "unresolved_regulatory_or_liability was not answered.", "extraction_without_reinvestment was not answered." ], "financial": { "base_monthly_contribution": 24360.0, "base_monthly_cash_flow": 6360.0, "downside_monthly_revenue": 25200.0, "downside_monthly_contribution": 14616.0, "downside_monthly_cash_flow": -3384.0, "break_even_monthly_revenue": 31034.48, "months_to_break_even_base": 28.3, "flags": [], "field_definitions": { "base_monthly_contribution": "projected_monthly_revenue_base \u00d7 gross_margin_pct", "base_monthly_cash_flow": "base_monthly_contribution \u2212 monthly_fixed_costs, rounded half-even to cents", "downside_monthly_cash_flow": "(projected_monthly_revenue_base \u00d7 downside_revenue_multiplier \u00d7 gross_margin_pct) \u2212 monthly_fixed_costs, rounded half-even to cents", "break_even_monthly_revenue": "monthly_fixed_costs / gross_margin_pct when gross margin is positive; otherwise undefined (Methodology \u00a7 Output Requirements)", "months_to_break_even_base": "initial_capital / unrounded base monthly cash flow when the rounded base cash flow is positive. This is months to recover initial capital at the base cash-flow rate, not a revenue-ramp forecast. Methodology \u00a7 Output Requirements asks for break-even; that amount is break_even_monthly_revenue." }, "model_version": "0.1-pilot" }, "projection": { "calculated": true, "methodology_refs": [ "Methodology \u00a7 Core Principles \u2014 deterministic calculations", "Methodology \u00a7 Core Principles \u2014 human approval required for final recommendations", "Methodology \u00a7 Evaluation Dimensions \u2014 Financial Feasibility & Capital Requirements", "Methodology \u00a7 Investor Readiness Gate", "Architecture \u00a7 Analysis Layer" ], "human_review_approved": false, "is_final": false, "investor_ready": false, "sources_and_uses": { "uses": { "construction_cost": { "amount": 100000.0, "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, "equipment": { "amount": 35000.0, "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, "soft_costs": { "amount": 15000.0, "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, "preopening_working_capital": { "amount": 20000.0, "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, "contingency": { "amount": 17000.0, "evidence_label": "calculated by the deterministic engine" }, "total_project_cost": { "amount": 187000.0, "evidence_label": "calculated by the deterministic engine" } }, "sources": { "debt": { "amount": 130900.0, "evidence_label": "calculated by the deterministic engine" }, "equity": { "amount": 56100.0, "evidence_label": "calculated by the deterministic engine" }, "total_sources": { "amount": 187000.0, "evidence_label": "calculated by the deterministic engine" }, "monthly_debt_service": 1094.9, "annual_debt_service": 13138.8 } }, "assumptions": [ { "key": "construction_cost", "value": 100000.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "equipment", "value": 35000.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "soft_costs", "value": 15000.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "preopening_working_capital", "value": 20000.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "contingency_pct", "value": 0.1, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "debt_share", "value": 0.7, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "annual_interest_rate", "value": 0.08, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "amortization_years", "value": 20.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "seats", "value": 48.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "average_ticket", "value": 28.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "weekday_occupancy", "value": 0.45, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "weekend_occupancy", "value": 0.7, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "operating_days", "value": 312.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "annual_fixed_costs", "value": 240000.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "contribution_margin", "value": 0.35, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "downside_multiplier", "value": 0.6, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "Contingency equals contingency_pct times (construction + equipment + soft costs + pre-opening working capital).", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Total project cost equals that subtotal plus contingency.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Debt equals debt_share times total project cost. Equity is the residual after debt is rounded to cents.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Annual debt service is twelve monthly level payments. Each monthly payment is rounded half-even to cents, then multiplied by 12. A zero interest rate sets the monthly payment to debt divided by the number of months.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Base revenue is seats \u00d7 occupancy \u00d7 average ticket \u00d7 operating days, from engine.financial.seat_occupancy_revenue.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "The downside view multiplies weekday occupancy and weekend occupancy by downside_multiplier, then recomputes that revenue. The default multiplier is 0.6.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Cash flow before debt service equals revenue \u00d7 contribution_margin \u2212 annual fixed costs.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Break-even revenue equals (annual fixed costs + annual debt service) / contribution_margin when the margin is positive.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "DSCR equals cash flow before debt service divided by annual debt service. DSCR is undefined when rounded annual debt service is zero.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Debt share 0.70, interest 0.08, and 20-year amortization are the coded terms already used by the startup calculator. They are not a market study.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" } ], "views": { "base": { "revenue": 218649.6, "occupancy": 0.5214285714285715, "cash_flow_before_debt_service": -163472.64, "dscr": -12.442 }, "downside": { "multiplier": 0.6, "applied_to": "occupancy", "weekday_occupancy": 0.27, "weekend_occupancy": 0.42, "revenue": 131189.76, "cash_flow_before_debt_service": -194083.58, "dscr": -14.7718 }, "break_even": { "revenue": 723253.71, "covers": "annual fixed costs plus annual debt service" } } }, "projection_text": "Methodology \u00a7 Core Principles \u2014 deterministic calculations, and human approval before a final recommendation.\nMethodology \u00a7 Investor Readiness Gate \u2014 this path does not mark the assessment investor-ready.\nhuman_review_approved: false\nis_final: false\ninvestor_ready: false\n\n### Sources and uses\nUses\n- construction_cost: 100000.00 (user-supplied assumption)\n- equipment: 35000.00 (user-supplied assumption)\n- soft_costs: 15000.00 (user-supplied assumption)\n- preopening_working_capital: 20000.00 (user-supplied assumption)\n- contingency: 17000.00 (calculated by the deterministic engine)\n- total_project_cost: 187000.00 (calculated by the deterministic engine)\nSources\n- debt: 130900.00 (calculated by the deterministic engine)\n- equity: 56100.00 (calculated by the deterministic engine)\n- total_sources: 187000.00 (calculated by the deterministic engine)\n- annual_debt_service: 13138.80\n\n### Assumption list\n- construction_cost = 100000.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- equipment = 35000.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- soft_costs = 15000.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- preopening_working_capital = 20000.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- contingency_pct = 0.1 (user-supplied assumption)\n- debt_share = 0.7 (user-supplied assumption)\n- annual_interest_rate = 0.08 (user-supplied assumption)\n- amortization_years = 20.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- seats = 48.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- average_ticket = 28.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- weekday_occupancy = 0.45 (user-supplied assumption)\n- weekend_occupancy = 0.7 (user-supplied assumption)\n- operating_days = 312.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- annual_fixed_costs = 240000.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- contribution_margin = 0.35 (user-supplied assumption)\n- downside_multiplier = 0.6 (user-supplied assumption)\n- Contingency equals contingency_pct times (construction + equipment + soft costs + pre-opening working capital). = None (model assumption)\n- Total project cost equals that subtotal plus contingency. = None (model assumption)\n- Debt equals debt_share times total project cost. Equity is the residual after debt is rounded to cents. = None (model assumption)\n- Annual debt service is twelve monthly level payments. Each monthly payment is rounded half-even to cents, then multiplied by 12. A zero interest rate sets the monthly payment to debt divided by the number of months. = None (model assumption)\n- Base revenue is seats \u00d7 occupancy \u00d7 average ticket \u00d7 operating days, from engine.financial.seat_occupancy_revenue. = None (model assumption)\n- The downside view multiplies weekday occupancy and weekend occupancy by downside_multiplier, then recomputes that revenue. The default multiplier is 0.6. = None (model assumption)\n- Cash flow before debt service equals revenue \u00d7 contribution_margin \u2212 annual fixed costs. = None (model assumption)\n- Break-even revenue equals (annual fixed costs + annual debt service) / contribution_margin when the margin is positive. = None (model assumption)\n- DSCR equals cash flow before debt service divided by annual debt service. DSCR is undefined when rounded annual debt service is zero. = None (model assumption)\n- Debt share 0.70, interest 0.08, and 20-year amortization are the coded terms already used by the startup calculator. They are not a market study. = None (model assumption)\n\n### Base case\n- Revenue: 218649.60\n- Cash flow before debt service: -163472.64\n- DSCR: -12.4420\n\n### Downside case\n- downside_multiplier 0.6 applied to occupancy.\n- Revenue: 131189.76\n- Cash flow before debt service: -194083.58\n- DSCR: -14.7718\n\n### Break-even\n- Revenue needed to cover fixed costs plus debt service: 723253.71", "report_markdown": "# RUGD Assessment Report\n\n**Engagement:** startup_feasibility \n**Business:** Hypothetical Restaurant \u2014 verified demand demonstration \n**Date:** 2026-11-09 \n**Model Version:** 0.1-pilot\n\n## Executive Summary\n\nDraft recommendation: conditional. Blocking flags: none. Gap flags: FINANCIAL_INPUTS_NOT_MEASURED, UNEVALUATED_OPERATOR_CAPACITY, UNEVALUATED_REGULATORY_OR_LIABILITY, UNEVALUATED_STEWARDSHIP. Review status: pending. This paragraph is assembled by scoring/rules.py from those flags. It is not a final recommendation and it is not a verified fact (Methodology \u00a7 Core Principles; Methodology \u00a7 Output Requirements).\n\n**Recommendation:** conditional (go / conditional / do-not-proceed) \n*Human approval required before this recommendation is final.* \n**Review status:** pending \u2014 draft only, not a final recommendation\n\n## Evidence Base and Assumptions\n\n### Verified Data\n\n- revenue_trailing_12m: not supplied\n- current_cash: not supplied\n- headcount: not supplied\n- evidence_notes: Verified demand record, source verified. Demonstration of the documented rule: boolean demand_evidence true with source verified and a rationale. Not market research and not a real customer file.\nVerified fields are copied from the intake. Missing fields were left empty.\n\n### Assumptions\n\n#### Intake assumptions\nEach item keeps the source stored on the intake (Methodology \u00a7 Core Principles \u2014 evidence hierarchy).\n- `demand_evidence` = True (source: verified). Demonstration of the documented rule: boolean demand_evidence true with source verified and a rationale. Not market research and not a real customer file.\n#### Method assumptions used by this run\n- Marginal cash flow means monthly cash flow rounded half-even to cents is less than or equal to zero. No other marginal band is approved.\n- NEGATIVE_OR_MARGINAL_CASH_FLOW is raised only when both the base case and the downside case meet that test.\n- Any flag in the approved recommend-against set drafts do-not-proceed. No per-flag split between do-not-proceed and conditional-only is approved.\n- A criterion with no user or verified input stays unevaluated. Unevaluated criteria draft conditional when no recommend-against flag fired, so a silent intake cannot draft go.\n- Assumptions with source ai_interpretation are listed. They do not raise or clear recommend-against flags.\n- demand_evidence true with source verified, or verified trailing revenue greater than zero, clears insufficient demand. Trailing revenue of zero does not. Trailing revenue is not a market-size score.\n- demand_evidence true with source user leaves DEMAND_EVIDENCE_UNVERIFIED. That gap drafts conditional when no recommend-against flag fired. It does not draft do-not-proceed by itself.\n- If demand support conflicts with demand_evidence false from a user or verified source, the insufficient-demand flag stays on.\n- If operator capacity, regulatory exposure, or extraction has both true and false from user or verified sources, the recommend-against flag stays on.\n- When financial_inputs is present and inputs_are_measured is omitted, the inputs are treated as measured. When the field is false, or financial_inputs is absent, the cash-flow criterion is not evaluated.\n- months_to_break_even_base is months to recover initial capital at the base cash-flow rate. Break-even revenue is break_even_monthly_revenue.\n- The overall feasibility score and the 1\u20135 dimension scores are not computed.\n- No currency unit is defined on the intake. Amounts stay in the unit of the inputs.\n- This module cannot record human approval. is_final stays false and human_review_status stays pending.\n#### AI interpretations (listed, not used to raise or clear recommend-against flags)\n- None on this intake.\n\n## Financial Summary\n\n* Base monthly contribution: 24360.00 (arithmetic on unmeasured inputs; not a cash-flow finding)\n* Base monthly cash flow: 6360.00 (arithmetic on unmeasured inputs; not a cash-flow finding)\n* Downside monthly cash flow: -3384.00 (arithmetic on unmeasured inputs; not a cash-flow finding)\n* Break-even monthly revenue: 31034.48 (arithmetic on unmeasured inputs; not a cash-flow finding)\n* Months to recover initial capital at base cash flow: 28.3 (arithmetic on unmeasured inputs; not a finding)\n* Engine flags: none\n* Overall feasibility score: Not computed. Methodology \u00a7 Scoring Approach defines the overall feasibility score as a weighted average and says weights are adjustable by engagement type. No weights are approved, and no 1\u20135 rubric is approved, so none of these dimensions received a score: Market & Demand Reality; Competitive Position & Differentiation; Financial Feasibility & Capital Requirements; Operational Readiness & Capacity; Risk Profile (market, execution, financial, regulatory); Stewardship Indicators (reinvestment capacity, resilience, continuity potential); Implementation Feasibility (for AI or operational improvements).\n\nDefinitions from the deterministic engine (Methodology \u00a7 Output Requirements):\n- base_monthly_contribution: projected_monthly_revenue_base \u00d7 gross_margin_pct\n- base_monthly_cash_flow: base_monthly_contribution \u2212 monthly_fixed_costs, rounded half-even to cents\n- downside_monthly_cash_flow: (projected_monthly_revenue_base \u00d7 downside_revenue_multiplier \u00d7 gross_margin_pct) \u2212 monthly_fixed_costs, rounded half-even to cents\n- break_even_monthly_revenue: monthly_fixed_costs / gross_margin_pct when gross margin is positive; otherwise undefined (Methodology \u00a7 Output Requirements)\n- months_to_break_even_base: initial_capital / unrounded base monthly cash flow when the rounded base cash flow is positive. This is months to recover initial capital at the base cash-flow rate, not a revenue-ramp forecast. Methodology \u00a7 Output Requirements asks for break-even; that amount is break_even_monthly_revenue.\nNo currency unit is defined on the intake. Amounts stay in the unit of the inputs.\ninputs_are_measured is false, or financial inputs were absent. The figures are arithmetic on the supplied numbers. Scoring did not treat them as a measured base case or downside case.\n\n### Reasonableness check\n\nSecondary industry benchmark. National Restaurant Association, 2025 Restaurant Operations Data Abstract, 2024 full-service medians. This comparison is not a scoring input.\n- Labor %: not calculated, so it was not compared with the secondary industry benchmark (NRA median 36.5% of sales).\n- Occupancy %: not calculated, so it was not compared with the secondary industry benchmark (NRA median 5.7% of sales).\n- Pre-tax margin: not calculated, so it was not compared with the secondary industry benchmark (NRA median 2.8% of sales).\n\n## Startup Capital and Projection\n\nMethodology \u00a7 Core Principles \u2014 deterministic calculations, and human approval before a final recommendation.\nMethodology \u00a7 Investor Readiness Gate \u2014 this path does not mark the assessment investor-ready.\nhuman_review_approved: false\nis_final: false\ninvestor_ready: false\n\n### Sources and uses\nUses\n- construction_cost: 100000.00 (user-supplied assumption)\n- equipment: 35000.00 (user-supplied assumption)\n- soft_costs: 15000.00 (user-supplied assumption)\n- preopening_working_capital: 20000.00 (user-supplied assumption)\n- contingency: 17000.00 (calculated by the deterministic engine)\n- total_project_cost: 187000.00 (calculated by the deterministic engine)\nSources\n- debt: 130900.00 (calculated by the deterministic engine)\n- equity: 56100.00 (calculated by the deterministic engine)\n- total_sources: 187000.00 (calculated by the deterministic engine)\n- annual_debt_service: 13138.80\n\n### Assumption list\n- construction_cost = 100000.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- equipment = 35000.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- soft_costs = 15000.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- preopening_working_capital = 20000.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- contingency_pct = 0.1 (user-supplied assumption)\n- debt_share = 0.7 (user-supplied assumption)\n- annual_interest_rate = 0.08 (user-supplied assumption)\n- amortization_years = 20.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- seats = 48.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- average_ticket = 28.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- weekday_occupancy = 0.45 (user-supplied assumption)\n- weekend_occupancy = 0.7 (user-supplied assumption)\n- operating_days = 312.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- annual_fixed_costs = 240000.0 (user-supplied assumption)\n- contribution_margin = 0.35 (user-supplied assumption)\n- downside_multiplier = 0.6 (user-supplied assumption)\n- Contingency equals contingency_pct times (construction + equipment + soft costs + pre-opening working capital). = None (model assumption)\n- Total project cost equals that subtotal plus contingency. = None (model assumption)\n- Debt equals debt_share times total project cost. Equity is the residual after debt is rounded to cents. = None (model assumption)\n- Annual debt service is twelve monthly level payments. Each monthly payment is rounded half-even to cents, then multiplied by 12. A zero interest rate sets the monthly payment to debt divided by the number of months. = None (model assumption)\n- Base revenue is seats \u00d7 occupancy \u00d7 average ticket \u00d7 operating days, from engine.financial.seat_occupancy_revenue. = None (model assumption)\n- The downside view multiplies weekday occupancy and weekend occupancy by downside_multiplier, then recomputes that revenue. The default multiplier is 0.6. = None (model assumption)\n- Cash flow before debt service equals revenue \u00d7 contribution_margin \u2212 annual fixed costs. = None (model assumption)\n- Break-even revenue equals (annual fixed costs + annual debt service) / contribution_margin when the margin is positive. = None (model assumption)\n- DSCR equals cash flow before debt service divided by annual debt service. DSCR is undefined when rounded annual debt service is zero. = None (model assumption)\n- Debt share 0.70, interest 0.08, and 20-year amortization are the coded terms already used by the startup calculator. They are not a market study. = None (model assumption)\n\n### Base case\n- Revenue: 218649.60\n- Cash flow before debt service: -163472.64\n- DSCR: -12.4420\n\n### Downside case\n- downside_multiplier 0.6 applied to occupancy.\n- Revenue: 131189.76\n- Cash flow before debt service: -194083.58\n- DSCR: -14.7718\n\n### Break-even\n- Revenue needed to cover fixed costs plus debt service: 723253.71\n\n## Key Risks and Mitigations\n\nAssembled from scoring flags by scoring/rules.py. This is not an independent qualitative risk essay.\n- **FINANCIAL_INPUTS_NOT_MEASURED** (gap). Methodology \u00a7 Scoring Approach \u2014 negative or marginal cash-flow under base and downside cases. Methodology \u00a7 Core Principles \u2014 verified data and assumptions stay distinct. Unmeasured financial inputs are not a base case or a downside case. Engine flags on these inputs: none. Those flags were not applied as a recommend-against finding because the inputs are not a measured base case and downside case. Base monthly cash flow 6360.0. Downside monthly cash flow -3384.0. Mitigation: Replace unmeasured financial inputs with measured figures, set inputs_are_measured to true, and re-run.\n- **UNEVALUATED_OPERATOR_CAPACITY** (gap). Methodology \u00a7 Scoring Approach \u2014 founder/operator capacity inadequate for the proposed scope. No user or verified value for operator_capacity_adequate. Mitigation: Record operator_capacity_adequate as true or false with source user or verified.\n- **UNEVALUATED_REGULATORY_OR_LIABILITY** (gap). Methodology \u00a7 Scoring Approach \u2014 material unresolved regulatory or liability issues. No user or verified value for unresolved_regulatory_or_liability. Mitigation: Record unresolved_regulatory_or_liability as true or false with source user or verified.\n- **UNEVALUATED_STEWARDSHIP** (gap). Methodology \u00a7 Scoring Approach \u2014 stewardship indicators show extraction without reinvestment capacity. No user or verified value for extraction_without_reinvestment. Mitigation: Record extraction_without_reinvestment as true or false with source user or verified.\n\n## Stewardship Observations\n\nMethodology \u00a7 Scoring Approach \u2014 stewardship indicators show extraction without reinvestment capacity.\n\nStatus: gap.\n\nNo user or verified value for extraction_without_reinvestment.\n\nMethodology \u00a7 Core Principles sets a stewardship orientation for every assessment: long-term enterprise strength over short-term extraction. That principle is the standard being applied. It is not evidence that this venture reinvests.\n\nThe intake has no additional stewardship narrative beyond the extraction criterion above.\n\n## Recommended Next Actions\n\n- Human reviewer must approve or reject this draft before it is used as a recommendation. This runner cannot record that approval.\n- Keep this draft conditional until every unevaluated criterion is recorded and a human reviewer approves the result.\n- Replace unmeasured financial inputs with measured figures, set inputs_are_measured to true, and re-run.\n- Record operator_capacity_adequate as true or false with source user or verified.\n- Record unresolved_regulatory_or_liability as true or false with source user or verified.\n- Record extraction_without_reinvestment as true or false with source user or verified.\n\n## Investor Readiness\n\n**Status:** conditional (internal / conditional / investor-ready) \n**human_review_approved:** false\n\n- **Human review complete and release explicitly approved:** failed. Investor-ready requires human review complete, release explicitly approved, and human_review_approved true.\n- **No recommend-against flags are active:** passed. No recommend-against flags are active.\n- **Conditional flags have accepted mitigations:** failed. Open conditional flags: FINANCIAL_INPUTS_NOT_MEASURED, UNEVALUATED_OPERATOR_CAPACITY, UNEVALUATED_REGULATORY_OR_LIABILITY, UNEVALUATED_STEWARDSHIP.\n- **Base-case cash flow is non-negative:** failed. Base-case cash flow was not supplied as a measured engine result.\n- **Downside DSCR meets the engagement minimum:** failed. Downside DSCR was not supplied by the deterministic engine. The engagement minimum is 1.00x.\n- **Demand evidence is verified or has a verification plan:** passed. Demand evidence is verified.\n- **Regulatory or liability issues are resolved or disclosed with mitigations:** failed. Material regulatory or liability issues are not resolved or disclosed with mitigations.\n- **Stewardship does not show extraction without reinvestment capacity:** passed. Stewardship indicators do not show extraction without reinvestment capacity.\n\nRelease for investors still requires explicit human approval. This report does not grant that approval.\n\n---\n\n*Generated under RUGD Methodology v1.0. All financial figures from deterministic engine. Draft only until a person approves it.*\n\n## Demand evidence status\n\n**Status:** cleared\n\nVerified demand support: demand_evidence is true with source verified.\n\n## Assessment view\n\n**Recommendation:** conditional\n\n**INSUFFICIENT_DEMAND_EVIDENCE:** not present\n\n**Demand evidence status:** cleared\n\n**Investor readiness:** conditional\n\n**Human review status:** pending\n\n**human_review_approved:** false\n\n**Demand evidence provenance:**\n\n- revenue_trailing_12m: placeholder\n- demand_evidence: verified (source: verified)\n\nThis status comes from the 0.1 demand rule. human_review_approved remains false. This report does not mark the assessment investor-ready.\n", "audit": { "model_version": "0.1-pilot", "human_review_approved": false, "is_final": false, "approvals": [], "investor_summary_written": false, "investor_readiness": { "status": "conditional", "human_review_approved": false, "investor_ready": false }, "recommendation": { "draft_recommendation": "conditional", "blocking_flags": [], "gap_flags": [ "FINANCIAL_INPUTS_NOT_MEASURED", "UNEVALUATED_OPERATOR_CAPACITY", "UNEVALUATED_REGULATORY_OR_LIABILITY", "UNEVALUATED_STEWARDSHIP" ], "overall_feasibility_score": null }, "demand_evidence": { "status": "cleared", "criterion_status": "clear", "flag": null, "evidence": "Verified demand support: demand_evidence is true with source verified.", "revenue_trailing_12m": null, "verified_demand_evidence": [ true ], "provenance": [ { "field": "revenue_trailing_12m", "provenance": "placeholder", "source": null, "value": null }, { "field": "demand_evidence", "provenance": "verified", "source": "verified", "value": true } ], "human_review_approved": false, "investor_ready": false }, "view_summary": { "recommendation": "conditional", "insufficient_demand_evidence": "not present", "demand_status": "cleared", "investor_readiness": "conditional", "human_review_status": "pending", "human_review_approved": false, "is_final": false, "demand_provenance": [ { "field": "revenue_trailing_12m", "provenance": "placeholder", "source": null, "value": null }, { "field": "demand_evidence", "provenance": "verified", "source": "verified", "value": true } ] }, "financial_result": { "base_monthly_contribution": 24360.0, "base_monthly_cash_flow": 6360.0, "downside_monthly_revenue": 25200.0, "downside_monthly_contribution": 14616.0, "downside_monthly_cash_flow": -3384.0, "break_even_monthly_revenue": 31034.48, "months_to_break_even_base": 28.3, "flags": [], "field_definitions": { "base_monthly_contribution": "projected_monthly_revenue_base \u00d7 gross_margin_pct", "base_monthly_cash_flow": "base_monthly_contribution \u2212 monthly_fixed_costs, rounded half-even to cents", "downside_monthly_cash_flow": "(projected_monthly_revenue_base \u00d7 downside_revenue_multiplier \u00d7 gross_margin_pct) \u2212 monthly_fixed_costs, rounded half-even to cents", "break_even_monthly_revenue": "monthly_fixed_costs / gross_margin_pct when gross margin is positive; otherwise undefined (Methodology \u00a7 Output Requirements)", "months_to_break_even_base": "initial_capital / unrounded base monthly cash flow when the rounded base cash flow is positive. This is months to recover initial capital at the base cash-flow rate, not a revenue-ramp forecast. Methodology \u00a7 Output Requirements asks for break-even; that amount is break_even_monthly_revenue." }, "model_version": "0.1-pilot" }, "startup_capital": { "calculated": true, "methodology_refs": [ "Methodology \u00a7 Core Principles \u2014 deterministic calculations", "Methodology \u00a7 Core Principles \u2014 human approval required for final recommendations", "Methodology \u00a7 Evaluation Dimensions \u2014 Financial Feasibility & Capital Requirements", "Methodology \u00a7 Investor Readiness Gate", "Architecture \u00a7 Analysis Layer" ], "human_review_approved": false, "is_final": false, "investor_ready": false, "sources_and_uses": { "uses": { "construction_cost": { "amount": 100000.0, "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, "equipment": { "amount": 35000.0, "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, "soft_costs": { "amount": 15000.0, "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, "preopening_working_capital": { "amount": 20000.0, "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, "contingency": { "amount": 17000.0, "evidence_label": "calculated by the deterministic engine" }, "total_project_cost": { "amount": 187000.0, "evidence_label": "calculated by the deterministic engine" } }, "sources": { "debt": { "amount": 130900.0, "evidence_label": "calculated by the deterministic engine" }, "equity": { "amount": 56100.0, "evidence_label": "calculated by the deterministic engine" }, "total_sources": { "amount": 187000.0, "evidence_label": "calculated by the deterministic engine" }, "monthly_debt_service": 1094.9, "annual_debt_service": 13138.8 } }, "assumptions": [ { "key": "construction_cost", "value": 100000.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "equipment", "value": 35000.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "soft_costs", "value": 15000.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "preopening_working_capital", "value": 20000.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "contingency_pct", "value": 0.1, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "debt_share", "value": 0.7, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "annual_interest_rate", "value": 0.08, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "amortization_years", "value": 20.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "seats", "value": 48.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "average_ticket", "value": 28.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "weekday_occupancy", "value": 0.45, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "weekend_occupancy", "value": 0.7, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "operating_days", "value": 312.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "annual_fixed_costs", "value": 240000.0, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "contribution_margin", "value": 0.35, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "downside_multiplier", "value": 0.6, "source": "user", "evidence_label": "user-supplied assumption" }, { "key": "Contingency equals contingency_pct times (construction + equipment + soft costs + pre-opening working capital).", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Total project cost equals that subtotal plus contingency.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Debt equals debt_share times total project cost. Equity is the residual after debt is rounded to cents.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Annual debt service is twelve monthly level payments. Each monthly payment is rounded half-even to cents, then multiplied by 12. A zero interest rate sets the monthly payment to debt divided by the number of months.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Base revenue is seats \u00d7 occupancy \u00d7 average ticket \u00d7 operating days, from engine.financial.seat_occupancy_revenue.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "The downside view multiplies weekday occupancy and weekend occupancy by downside_multiplier, then recomputes that revenue. The default multiplier is 0.6.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Cash flow before debt service equals revenue \u00d7 contribution_margin \u2212 annual fixed costs.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Break-even revenue equals (annual fixed costs + annual debt service) / contribution_margin when the margin is positive.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "DSCR equals cash flow before debt service divided by annual debt service. DSCR is undefined when rounded annual debt service is zero.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" }, { "key": "Debt share 0.70, interest 0.08, and 20-year amortization are the coded terms already used by the startup calculator. They are not a market study.", "value": null, "source": "model", "evidence_label": "model assumption" } ], "views": { "base": { "revenue": 218649.6, "occupancy": 0.5214285714285715, "cash_flow_before_debt_service": -163472.64, "dscr": -12.442 }, "downside": { "multiplier": 0.6, "applied_to": "occupancy", "weekday_occupancy": 0.27, "weekend_occupancy": 0.42, "revenue": 131189.76, "cash_flow_before_debt_service": -194083.58, "dscr": -14.7718 }, "break_even": { "revenue": 723253.71, "covers": "annual fixed costs plus annual debt service" } } } }, "model_version": "0.1-pilot", "intake": { "engagement_type": "startup_feasibility", "business_name": "Hypothetical Restaurant \u2014 verified demand demonstration", "description": "Hypothetical demonstration \u2014 not a real assessment. Seat, ticket, occupancy, and cost-build figures are invented for the Explore-to-Analyze path. They are not market research and not a real operating business. This variant adds a verified demand_evidence record under the documented rule. Clearing that flag does not approve the assessment or make it investor-ready.", "as_of_date": "2026-11-09", "verified_data": { "revenue_trailing_12m": null, "current_cash": null, "headcount": null, "evidence_notes": "Verified demand record, source verified. Demonstration of the documented rule: boolean demand_evidence true with source verified and a rationale. Not market research and not a real customer file." }, "assumptions": [ { "key": "demand_evidence", "value": true, "source": "verified", "rationale": "Demonstration of the documented rule: boolean demand_evidence true with source verified and a rationale. Not market research and not a real customer file." } ], "financial_inputs": { "initial_capital": 180000.0, "monthly_fixed_costs": 18000.0, "gross_margin_pct": 0.58, "projected_monthly_revenue_base": 42000.0, "downside_revenue_multiplier": 0.6, "inputs_are_measured": false }, "startup_capital": { "construction_cost": 100000.0, "seats": 48.0, "average_ticket": 28.0, "weekday_occupancy": 0.45, "weekend_occupancy": 0.7, "operating_days": 312.0, "contribution_margin": 0.35, "equipment": 35000.0, "soft_costs": 15000.0, "preopening_working_capital": 20000.0, "contingency_pct": 0.1, "debt_share": 0.7, "annual_interest_rate": 0.08, "amortization_years": 20.0, "annual_fixed_costs": 240000.0, "downside_multiplier": 0.6, "verified": { "construction_cost": false, "seats": false, "average_ticket": false, "weekday_occupancy": false, "weekend_occupancy": false, "operating_days": false, "contribution_margin": false, "equipment": false, "soft_costs": false, "preopening_working_capital": false, "contingency_pct": false, "debt_share": false, "annual_interest_rate": false, "amortization_years": false, "annual_fixed_costs": false, "downside_multiplier": false } } } }, "human_review_approved": false, "created_at": "2026-11-09T16:44:57+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-11-09T16:58:18+00:00" } ] }